skat yacht position

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The current position of SKAT is in Balearic Sea with coordinates 38.86964° / 1.28637° as reported on 2024-07-23 07:49 by AIS to our vessel tracker app. The vessel's current speed is 0 Knots

The vessel SKAT (IMO: 1007287, MMSI: 319741000) is a Yacht that was built in 2002 ( 22 years old ) . It's sailing under the flag of [KY] Cayman Is .

In this page you can find informations about the vessels current position, last detected port calls, and current voyage information. If the vessels is not in coverage by AIS you will find the latest position.

The current position of SKAT is detected by our AIS receivers and we are not responsible for the reliability of the data. The last position was recorded while the vessel was in Coverage by the Ais receivers of our vessel tracking app.

The current draught of SKAT as reported by AIS is 4 meters

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Skat: A look inside the iconic 71m Lürssen superyacht

A favourite among yacht-spotters, Lürssen's 71-metre trendsetter SKAT has earned her place as one of the most photographed superyachts of all time. We take a rare glimpse inside as she's snapped up by new owners less than 18 months after joining the market... 

Look at these pictures and you either get SKAT or you don’t… but you won’t forget her. This yacht has been provoking discussion since her launch in 2002, and as Lürssen sales director Michael Breman notes, nearly 20 years on she is just as unforgettable and still fulfilling her owner’s brief for a yacht “pas tout à fait comme les autres”. A yacht like no other.

Grey, straight sides, high bow, faceted superstructure, a conning tower of a mast, launched by a builder renowned for military vessels – and 9906 emblazoned on her side like a warship. A Danish and Norwegian word for treasure, “skat” can be used as a term of endearment; 9906 stands for naval architect Espen Øino ’s sixth design commission in 1999 and grey is the owner’s favourite colour. And while not exactly mainstream, SKAT ’s unique look has mellowed over the years – or perhaps we have.

So how did a brilliant mathematician and computing genius who prefers to stay out of the limelight enter yachting with a boat so striking that it is a yacht-spotter magnet?

“He reached out to me through a mutual connection,” says Stuart Larsen of Fraser Yachts , the client’s broker. “His concept was so visionary that there was nothing on the market to satisfy the amazing futuristic needs of how he felt he should live on a yacht. He was ready to build a yacht and he asked me who I thought we should ask to design it. I thought about who was young and thinking outside the box and I suggested contacting Espen Øino. I didn’t even name any other designers.”

“It would have been the Octopus connection,” Øino notes. “Lürssen had held a competition to see who would design Octopus . I won, and that’s how Stuart, who was also that owner’s broker, saw how I work.” Larsen briefed Øino on a project that as yet had few boundaries, “other than something about not wanting a boat looking like it was carved out of a block of cheese – and that I needed to see the client’s house to understand. It was the end of April when I flew to meet him in the Pacific Northwest. He was so gracious and showed me every detail of the extraordinary house [a masterwork of late modernist architect Wendell H Lovett]. We talked about the boat, how he expected to live on it and that he likes circles, arcs, flat planes and straight lines – nothing extraneous. He didn’t want complicated shapes. He said if we are working with steel and aluminium, let’s respect the materials. I did explain that for the sake of hydrodynamics there would have to be a few curves in the hull surfaces.”

Øino was given four weeks to prepare a concept and he shares that on the flight home, reflecting on the client and the scope of the project, “I wondered what I had gotten myself into.” Precisely four weeks later a meeting was arranged in Monaco. It was the week of the Monaco Grand Prix and the client had chartered a 50-metre yacht.

“I arrived and there was a party going on, the boat was full of really important people. He invited me inside and we sat at a table reviewing my plans. All of a sudden, it started raining and everyone rushed inside. The saloon of that boat is not so big. The next thing, everyone was crowded around and I was making my presentation to all these people. “I wasn’t so confident then as I am now,” says Øino, laughing at the memory. “I wasn’t sure I could get through it. When I finished, I think I pushed the drawings towards him and waited in silence. Then he said, ‘I like it. Let’s do it,’…on the spot.”

Øino began with the GA, which was also unlike anything he had ever presented before. Design, he says, is about problem-solving and in this case the challenges involved putting the guest and owner’s cabins on the main deck, maximising crew areas, creating a large guest workspace, bringing as much natural light into the boat as possible, not stowing tenders on deck, incorporating a helipad and a gym and having clear sight lines. Fortunately the client appreciates multi-functionality of objects and spaces.

The entire design process took just six or seven months to complete. “Working with this fascinating client was a wonderful experience. To him, nothing was a problem, merely a challenge,” Øino says.

“With the basic GA in hand, I prepared a preliminary spec,” says Larsen, who sent the bid package to five shipyards before Lürssen was selected. In 1999 Lürssen’s yacht division was still gaining traction. It had built Be Mine , Limitless , Izanami and Coral Island but the projects were usually coming along one at a time.

“Lürssen was supervising the construction of Octopus at HDW in Kiel because she was too big for its yard, and I thought SKAT might be a good fit for the Lemwerder [Bremen] yard. I also thought, that with its military projects, it might be a bit more creative on technology,” he adds. That last part turned out to be especially true when it came to meeting requirements for a super quiet yacht.

Lürssen’s project manager, Jörg Buttscher, elaborates. “We knew reducing noise was very important so we approached it in two ways, and yes, we used military technology. We designed the engine room so that all of the equipment would be elastically mounted to a steel raft [an enormous steel structure that floats on resilient mounts].” This included the engines, generators in their soundboxes, watermakers, air compressors – virtually everything that produced noise and vibration. Elastic mounts were specified based on the frequency of each engine or machine. The raft was in turn floated off the structure of the engine room’s lower level on shock mounts. All conduit, pipes and exhaust lines running from the equipment on the raft were isolated as well.

“We insulated the entire two-level space from the rest of the yacht’s interior,” Buttscher says. “We used a technical material we had used before but on other yachts we probably used about 60 per cent of the amount we used on SKAT .” The proof is in sound levels that measure far lower than most owners demand or yards deliver: 34dB in the master at cruising speed.

One of the granular details of the build was how few changes were made to the specifications and design once construction started, despite the fact that the owner visited the yard monthly. “We had never had a client show that much attention to the process before,” Buttscher says. It became a mark of pride with the build team. “We took our time with the planning. The bridge was mocked up 1:1 for example so he could see exactly where everything would be before we built it. If you don’t plan properly, problems come up and the owner loses the fun of building.”

SKAT ’s interior is also one of a kind. “I recommended Marco Zanini for the project,” Øino says. The pair had worked together earlier on an unusual conversion project called Amazon Express and on two smaller boats and Øino believed Zanini, who had been a designer for famed architect Ettore Sottsass before becoming a founder of the iconoclastic 1980s design powerhouse Memphis Group, would be a good fit.

“After Espen proposed me and one other designer, the owner asked us to design one room. Then he asked me to come and see his house and I flew there with Jörg,” Zanini says.“He said, ‘Look, this is my house, this is my plane. I want a seamless experience from my house to my jet to my yacht.’ He’s very mathematical. I understood how his mind works within an hour. The rest was just details. For example, he questioned why wall switches are always arranged as a horizontal instead of vertical like outlet covers. He’s right of course, it’s much more logical.”

Once he understood the goal, Zanini says, “it was easy. Clean, precise, uncluttered, practical, useful and, if possible, multi-useful. I designed for him a yacht that sails, not a Tudor palace. I suppose it helps that I had been sailing for years. The interior is extremely modern, in tune with the owner’s vision of the world and the outside design of the ship.”

Zanini realised that to the client, grey is a neutral colour – his favourite neutral colour, and that elements of his art collection, mostly pop art by Victor Vasarely and Roy Lichtenstein, are so bold that they demanded a neutral background to be appreciated. Instead of wall panels and cabinets in intricate grains, he proposed solid sheets of Wilsonart laminate outlined geometrically in teak bands and a few counters of grey Guanabara granite.

“Plastic laminate is seaworthy, comfortable and practical,” Zanini says unapologetically. “We worked out the thematic colours – grey, dark blue, red and white – and he took to the idea of the smooth laminate quickly.” The surface material may be common, but that does not mean there was not a lot of intricate design to the flat panels, consistent teak banding, reveals and tight tolerances of the interior crafted by interior outfitters Zago and Deutsche Werkstätten Hellerau. Aside from the art, the only other interior colour comes from a few occasional chairs. The space is restful and speaks with one consistent design language.

Zanini gives considerable credit to Brazilian designer Flávia Alves De Souza , who worked with him on SKAT . “She did most of the actual design of each space, built mock-ups [the saloon was also mocked up 1:1], developed details and followed the execution... I may have read [the owner’s] mind and had most of the basic ideas, but she did hundreds of drawings and worked hundreds of hours to get it right.”

At launch, SKAT ’s extensive use of glass nearly caused necks to snap. The 270-degree surround of windows on the bridge deck created a conservatory effect heretofore unseen but perfect for viewing surroundings and brightening the interior. Port and starboard the bay windows stand proud of the superstructure and angle inward to join the overhead. The amount of glass was such that class insisted on exterior water-cooling spray rails linked to the fire system. “Thankfully, they have never been needed, but they allow for fast washdown,” the captain quips.

“The bridge deck is where everyone hangs out and it’s been designed for multiple functions,” Larsen says. More organised than divided, most of the area aft of the main staircase is open plan. “The thought that went into it is fantastic.” Two functional areas, the library on port and the guest office to starboard, can be closed from the rest by pocket doors or allowed to cleverly flow along the bay windows aft on to the informal saloon and a bar/games/snack area. This in turn opens through glass doors to the aft deck, shaded by the helipad above. Here are breezy options for large or small group dining, napping or views out over the stern.

Like the captain, many of the yacht’s crew have been aboard for many years and that, too, was part of the plan. Long before MLC 2006 mandated better working and living environments for mariners, SKAT ’s owner understood that the boat wasn’t just his home on water but the crew’s home also and was determined to provide a good living space. As a result, the entire lower deck, save for the beach club and dive store, is dedicated to crew. Their double cabins are spacious, each has a desk and wardrobes and an en suite head with enclosed shower, something that was uncommon in 1999. A comfortable crew lounge is separate from the crew mess; both are separate from the galley. An extra plus is the dedicated workshop with more than enough space and storage for all manner of tools.

There is just one lift on SKAT but it has two doors, one opening on to guest corridors and one to the crew side, and it extends from the gym deck all the way to the tank deck. The lift’s wall panels hide fold-out shelves that crew employ during guest meal service. Instead of jockeying around a bulky food cart, crew flip up the shelves and put the plated dishes and service items on them to whisk them from the galley to service pantries on the main, bridge or gym deck.

The finish of the crew quarters uses exactly the same practical surfaces and attention to design detail as the guest areas. “I’m proud to be part of that egalitarian effort,” Zanini comments.

Nearly 20 years down the line, the yacht’s interior and layout have remained close to the original apart from substantial refreshing of sofas, chairs and other soft furnishings as the interior transitioned from a bachelor’s yacht to a family home. “The owner’s office became a child’s cabin, the large spa bathtub was reduced in size, a guest cabin was modified to be convertible to another child’s cabin and a door was added to allow the family cabins to be a private wing. And we found a place for a swingset, trampoline and sea pool,” the captain notes.

The plan wasn’t to build an innovative yacht, just a highly personal one. “That yacht was a lot of firsts for us, first helideck and our first yacht with all the accommodations on main deck or above. The arc at the bow was difficult to build and it was also a difficult boat to paint with all those unforgiving flat surfaces. It was hard to make it perfect,” Breman says.

“It was a difficult design to understand on paper,” Øino says. “Remember there wasn’t 3D modelling or photorealistic renderings 21 years ago. There was one fellow at the launch who, when the boat came out of the shed, was really surprised. He said from the drawings he thought it was going to be the ugliest boat ever, but seeing it he said, ‘It’s cool.’” Or perhaps, “spaendende” – Danish for exciting – is more appropriate for such a treasure. 

SKAT was sold in November 2021 with Stuart Larsen of Fraser representing both buyer and seller. This feature is taken from the January 2021 issue of BOAT International. Get this magazine sent straight to your door, or subscribe and never miss an issue.

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SKAT , IMO 1007287

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SKAT - IMO 1007287

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Own helicoptor on board. What a beautiful privilege! Yacht ("Skat") belongs to Charles Simonyi, US-Hungarian computer millionaire and Cosmonaut. Visit to Aarhus harbour, Denmark.

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SKAT (IMO 9101077 ) - Fishing Support Vessel

What are skat ship details.

SKAT (IMO: 9101077) is a Fishing Support Vessel registered and sailing under the flag of Russian Federation . Her gross tonnage is 741 and deadweight is 332 . SKAT was built in 1993 . SKAT length overall (LOA) is 53.74 m, beam is 10.71 m. Her container capacity is 0 TEU. The ship is operated by .

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SKAT Research Vessel, IMO 8330748

Where is the current position of skat presently vessel skat is a sailing under the flag of russian federation . her imo number is 8330748 and mmsi number is 273331330. main ship particulars are length of 29 m and beam of 8 m. maps show the following voyage data - present location, next port, estimated (eta) and predicted time of arrival (pta), speed, course, draught, photos, videos, local time, utc time..

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Fishing Vessel, IMO 6870500

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Behind the scenes as Joe Biden lost control of the Democratic Party

Many Democrats described the first three weeks of July as a kind of nightmare — too extraordinary to be real, too unexpected to be believed.

The president of the United States had spoken — with 24 million Americans watching on TV. Every Democratic leader knew Joe Biden would continue his campaign. Statements like that used to mean something.

But two days after that July 11 NATO news conference, the president found himself hunched in front of a stone fireplace in his Rehoboth Beach, Del., home, losing his temper. A war hero had just questioned the toll that age took on his ability to lead.

“Tell me who enlarged NATO. Tell me who did the Pacific basin,” Biden snapped over Zoom at Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), a decorated, retired Army Ranger, according to a recording of the virtual meeting with House Democrats. “Tell me who did something that you never done with your Bronze Star — and your — like my son — and, you know — proud of your leadership. But guess what? Well, what’s happening? We got Korea and Japan working together.”

Crow was not the problem, however. He was the tip of the spear.

Significant parts of the president’s campaign and White House team were saying privately that, after a disastrous debate performance on June 27, they no longer believed. Big donors were withholding money, demanding change. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) sat down with Biden after the news conference to warn the president that his candidacy imperiled Democratic hopes of taking back the House. Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) shared the same warning days later. Delegates and party members sketched out a Plan B.

Just a month earlier, all of those people had been united behind Biden, focused on the threat they saw in former president Donald Trump — the felon, Capitol riot agitator, election denier, self-proclaimed “day one” dictator and provocateur. The mantra of former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — “Diversity is our strength. Unity is our power” — still governed Democrats in June.

But now even Pelosi was saying Biden needed more time to decide what he said he had already decided. Former president Barack Obama, Biden’s old running mate and governing partner, told allies that the path to victory had diminished. House Democrats, who had planned to cast Republicans as “chaos agents” in the fall, edged toward revolution. Seven more called for Biden to step aside on the day of his NATO news conference.

The sudden collapse of Biden’s control over the party he brought to power, just four months before a presidential election, is without obvious historical precedent. Behind the scenes, people working inside the bowels of Democratic politics and government described the first three weeks of July as a kind of nightmare — too extraordinary to be real, too unexpected to be believed.

This story of Biden’s shrinking political power is based on interviews with more than three dozen people who played behind-the-scenes roles, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe painful private events and respond frankly to even more astounding public ones.

The terrible Biden debate was followed by a far more terrible attempted assassination of Trump on live television July 13, from which the former president rose triumphant — fist in the air, blood streaked across his face. Biden’s polling, which held steady at first, began to erode.

Then the 81-year-old president, traveling to campaign events to try to prove his vigor, contracted covid again. As Trump welcomed his new running mate this week in Milwaukee, video footage showed a delicate Biden struggling to get up the short stairs to Air Force One on his way to further isolation. Aides passed along the footage in dismay, a person familiar with the messages said. A dozen Democratic lawmakers — 10 House members and two senators — called on Biden to step aside after the conclusion of the Republican nominating convention, meaning that as of Friday evening 37 lawmakers had urged him to leave the race .

Biden and his campaign team still maintain that nothing has changed. Even Jeffries continues to state publicly, as he did Friday, that Biden has “the ability, the capacity, and the track record to make a case to the American people that will result in us being successful in November.”

“I don’t want to be rude, but I don’t know how many more times we can answer that,” principal deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks said Thursday morning.

But Fulks spoke those words on behalf of a president no longer backed by an entire party. Two-thirds of the country, including 56 percent of Democrats, said in a Washington Post-ABC-Ipsos poll in early July that Biden should drop out. Biden is testing how far a president can lead when his followers go astray.

“This is a brand-new political problem,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder of the Democratic group Third Way. “It is the wickedest of political problems because one, no one knows if there is a solution. And two, there’s no one to coalesce around. And three, everyone has their own theory of the case, so it’s just incredibly, incredibly complicated.”

Full-court press

The first week after the debate had not gone well. No one, not even Biden, contested that. He needed to get out more, to prove his mettle, to replace the images of the doddering debate night in everyone’s mind. History will record that as things got worse, Biden fought harder.

A long interview with Complex magazine, another with BET, a third with Lester Holt of NBC News. Over a 48-hour period, he had calls with the Congressional Asian American Pacific Caucus, the New Democrat Coalition, the Congressional Progressive Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, whose political arm endorsed Biden on Friday. Lawmakers confronted him repeatedly to ask him to reconsider.

The White House circulated a list of about 20 other elected leaders or union officials the president had spoken with on the plane or while traveling. About 75 members of Congress have reiterated their support for him. He rallied another raucous crowd in Detroit. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) closed ranks.

“Can you hear the helicopter in the background?” Biden shouted through the phone to the Rev. Al Sharpton as he boarded a plane for Nevada, according to Sharpton. “We’ve got to keep going, Al.”

The president wanted Sharpton’s help to let his base know he would not give up. The debate over Biden’s future had become its own wound, Sharpton argued. “It undercuts potential enthusiasm. It confuses people who want him to fight,” he said. “If he steps down, then what? If you have an open convention, couldn’t that be a disaster?”

One lawmaker who recently flew on Air Force One described only lately realizing the change in the president, after meeting with him several times over the last four years. Biden was speaking in hushed tones and could barely be heard across the table. Another lawmaker who spoke with Biden in the last few weeks described him as trailing off at times and calling the lawmaker by the wrong name, even as he seemed sharp at others.

And a third lawmaker who recently interacted with Biden described him as mentally sharp, if frail, and serious about staying in.

“He believes he can still win,” this person said. “I don’t think he is even spinning. He really thinks that everyone has always counted him out, and he has a chip on his shoulder, and he thinks he can win.”

Trump advisers and operatives in key states began discussing how they could help keep Biden in the race, believing he is a weaker candidate than other options for Democrats. “If Democrats want to win Georgia, they’d be better off with a potted plant at the top of their ticket,” said Cody Hall, a top adviser to Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), describing the current environment there.

At the White House, officials stoked the fires they could control. The policy shop began to fast-track plans that had long been in the works, including a blueprint to create term limits for the Supreme Court and impose new ethics rules on the justices — catnip for the liberal base. Propeller heads finalized a plan for legislation to take away tax rebates from corporate landlords who increased rent by more than 5 percent a year, a potentially massive new federal intervention to reverse a major driver of inflation.

Advance teams set up the big moment Tuesday at the NAACP National Convention in Las Vegas, where Biden would show he could paint the contrast with Republicans and debut his 5 percent rent cap.

But reading from a teleprompter, he lost his way.

“What I am about to announce,” he told the crowd. “They can’t raise it more than —” he trailed off . A pause. “Fifty-five dollars,” he finally said, for reasons that are not clear. The crowd cheered anyway.

Inside the West Wing, informal camps formed and pressure mounted. At times, it seemed the code of loyalty that had long followed Biden’s operations was coming undone. Some engaged in black humor. Some advisers shifted their focus from planning a second term to planning ways to lock in the policy wins they had achieved before Trump would take over, according to a Biden administration official briefed on the work. Other officials said more effort was still being put into planning a future agenda. The preparations for a Trump takeover, they added, had begun months earlier, as a normal course of business.

Some sought to rally the troops. “Keep the faith,” senior deputy White House press secretary Andrew Bates posted on social media Thursday.

Someone inside the White House anonymously texted Politico blaming “green badge staffers,” who do not have direct access to the West Wing like their “blue badge” peers, for the critical blind comments to the press. “This is out of line,” shot back Saloni Sharma, a top adviser to White House chief of staff Jeff Zients. “We are all a team and in this together.”

Among those working on the Biden campaign effort, things were not much better: work hard, panic in private, take nothing personally.

“The Republican Convention should light a fire under every American who wants to beat Trump and the Project 2025, and it certainly does for our campaign,” campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz said Friday. “It reaffirms just why President Biden is in this fight.”

One campaign aide said that junior and even some senior staff were in the dark about how Biden wanted to forge ahead. Text messages flew between Capitol Hill, administration officials and others, trying to figure out what was going on. Hungry journalists began reporting the impressions of their sources, who offered guesses about what might happen on the assumption that something different had to happen.

“It has been intriguing to learn how many ‘Biden insiders’ seem to exist all of a sudden, who just happen to sound identical to the people who’ve been giving blind quotes doubting us for five straight years, during win after win after win,” Bates responded.

Access to Biden, in calmer times, had been a stove-piped affair. Now people worried to each other that the future of the world order could be at stake. White House senior staff let it be known that their doors were open to underlings if anyone needed to talk through the difficulties.

White House staffers did not contest that Biden was spending more time with two of his longest-serving, most loyal advisers: Mike Donilon, senior campaign adviser, and Steve Ricchetti, counselor to the president. They argued that their expertise was more in demand. Both had argued that polling had become less meaningful.

Some advisers traded accusations, without evidence, that top aides had misplaced loyalties, selfish interests, personal ambitions. Those aspersions even made it onto MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” the president’s favorite cable talkfest, days later.

“The anger I hear are at the people that are keeping him in a bubble or who may have their own interests, some financial, in keeping him in the race,” co-host Joe Scarborough said, laying out for the world the ugliness growing in Biden’s world. “That is anger from inside his own political camp, and it is widespread. It is widespread. Joe Biden deserves better.”

It was a remarkable breakdown.

Uncertain ultimatum

As his NATO news conference concluded, Biden laid down a gauntlet. He would get out, he said, only if his advisers came to him and said, “There’s no way you can win.”

“I thought he bought us some time with the NATO news conference,” one campaign adviser said. “There was a sigh of relief that night. If that had gone poorly, I think we all thought it was over within 24 hours.”

Like others, this person said there had been lots of mistakes: Jill Biden’s Vogue photo shoot, a family meeting at Camp David, defensive Zoom calls, a sometimes polarizing communications strategy. There were increasingly dismal polls — and a sense the campaign might not last.

“The polling isn’t good, and it feels like things are just getting worse every day,” the campaign adviser said.

Political polling and analytics deal in probabilities, not absolutes like “No way.” They create snapshots in time, out of focus. Biden won in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points nationally, but he now trailed Trump by about 2 points, according to a Washington Post average of polls . Public surveys since the debate showed him down slightly in the must-win Northern swing states and by larger margins in Western and Southern states he hoped to win.

Democratic House polls showed him significantly behind his 2020 margins in key districts. Senate polls showed him trailing statewide Democrats by double digits in battleground states.

The campaign has been comforted by internal data showing that most of the people Biden has lost since the debate are unlikely to vote for Trump, suggesting they may come back. Most of them had not even watched the debate. But polling matters little when your party infrastructure is not behind you.

Democratic strategists outside the campaign argued that if Biden were an incumbent senator or congressman running at around 40 percent in a five-way ballot test, as Biden has been doing in some surveys, he would get only symbolic financial support from the Democratic Senate or House campaign committees and their affiliated super PACs.

Even before the debate, approval of Trump’s remembered presidency was running well ahead of Biden’s current one. Democrats assumed that Trump would get a bump out of his convention and probably a further boost in favorability once the trauma of the failed assassination was digested by voters.

The fate of the Democratic Party now hinged on the gut sense of a man who has spent the last 52 years working in national politics. “This is just purely emotion. It is not a vigorous data-driven exercise,” said one Democratic strategist, describing the decision Biden had already made and would have to make again.

“The truth of the matter is the decision is all in the hands of President Biden; there is not a practical way to prevent him from being the nominee if he wants to be the nominee,” said Jeff Weaver, the former political strategist for Sen. Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaigns. “If he were to demur, then the question becomes: What’s the process after that? Is it a coronation of Kamala Harris, which a lot of people are making the case for, or do we have some sort of truncated process?”

Donors dreamed of a sort of reality TV competition at the convention in August — a bake-off for the history books. Many had withheld tens of millions of dollars from Biden. Big-money people tried an escrow account for a new candidate, new polling about replacements for the nomination, money bombs for elected leaders who called on Biden to go. There was even a slogan: “No more dough until no more Joe.”

The campaign budget had been built on the assumption that tens of thousands of people who are not yet engaged would give millions of dollars. There is no survey data to say whether they will show up in September with $10 or $25 checks. There is no poll to predict whether the party comes back together. Trump remains unpopular, opposed by large shares of voters. But at the moment he is more popular than Biden.

James Carville, the Bill Clinton strategist who had long called for Biden to get out, worked the phone from a cruise ship off the coast of Alaska, trying to divine what happens next and get his party to a better place. He echoed others when he said he was not sure how Biden finds a way out of the spiral in which he is caught — a constant questioning about the path to victory that only makes the path to victory harder.

“What they are asking is, ‘How are you going to win this?’” he said of the people he had spoken to. “No one is over it, and we are moving ahead anyway.”